Fluctuation-based approaches to infer kinetics of cell-state switching

In the noisy cellular environment, RNAs and proteins are subject to considerable stochastic fluctuations in copy numbers over time. As a consequence, single cells within the same isoclonal population can differ in their expression profile and reside in different phenotypic states. Here we propose a fluctuation-test approach to infer the kinetics of transitions between cell states. More specifically, single cells are randomly drawn from the population and grown into cell colonies. After growth for a fixed number of generations, the number of cells residing in different states is assayed for each colony. In a simple system with reversible switching between two cell states, our analysis shows that the extent of colony-to-colony fluctuations in the fraction of cells in a given state is monotonically related to the switching kinetics. Several closed-form formulas for inferring the switching rates from experimentally quantified fluctuations are presented. This is especially important for scenarios where a measurement involves killing the cell (for example, performing single-cell RNA-seq or assaying whether a microbial/cancer cell is in a drug-sensitive or drug-tolerant state), and hence the state of the same cell cannot be measured at different time points.