Application of Grey Theory in Prediction of Dispatch Reliability for the Civil Aircraft

Reliability engineering is one of the important factors restricting the development of commercial aircraft. As an important feature of aircraft quality, civil aircraft reliability directly affects aircraft effectiveness and life cycle cost, and is of great significance to ensure safe operation, economic operation, and continuous airworthiness of aircraft. Dispatch reliability (DR) is an important index to reflect the reliability of civil aircraft. In this paper, we use the grey theory to predict the growth of the dispatch reliability of a certain aircraft type, so as to clarify the time to reach the design target value of the dispatch reliability. The prediction result has guiding significance for the design and optimization of the aircraft.