Revealing the Impact of Extreme Events on Electricity Consumption in Brazil: A Data-Driven Counterfactual Approach

The electric grid is uniquely susceptible to extreme events through both power supply and consumption pathways. Extreme events - like heatwaves and droughts - are expected to increase in frequency and severity due to climate change and are already causing consequences on power system operations and stability. Additionally, non-climate related events like the COVID-19 pandemic have had dramatic impacts on energy consumption patterns globally. We apply modern machine learning methods to model electricity consumption in Brazil, one of the largest generators of hydropower, to better understand the consumption-side effects of extreme national and regional events. After training on 20 years of historical data, we verify an R
²
of 0.848 and a MAPE of 2.6% for our counterfactual model and use it to assess impacts of historical events on electricity consumption. We then discuss how this approach can be applied toward measuring energy system responsiveness and resiliency on present and future scenarios.