Modeling of air traffic losses caused by war in Ukraine

The air transport system uses a wide network of flight routes to perform connections between two airports over the globe. Russian military invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caused a close significant part of airspace for civil aviation use which includes Ukrainian, Belarusian, and Russian airspaces. In addition, airspace of Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Pakistan, and Yemen has serious restrictions on its use. Simultaneously closed airspaces in the Eurasian region affect global air traffic system. Results of modeling air traffic losses based on canceled flights for direct connections with Ukrainian airports are studied in the paper. The surveillance database of air traffic To and From Ukrainian airports has been used to detect scheduled flights which are repeated weekly. All non-repeated flights during the two months have been referred to as non-scheduled flights. Normal probability density function has been used for modeling non-scheduled flights during the time Ukrainian airspace has been closed. Cumulated losses for each day of airspace closed has been estimated for the number of flights, total flights length, and losses in seat number which have not been provided. Also, losses distribution for each affected airline has been estimated.