Mining Social Media Data to Predict COVID-19 Case Counts

The unpredictability and unknowns surrounding the ongoing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic have led to an unprecedented consequence taking a heavy toll on the lives and economies of all countries. There have been efforts to predict COVID-19 case counts (CCC) using epidemiological data and numerical tokens online, which may allow early preventive measures to slow the spread of the disease. In this paper, we use state-of-the-art natural language processing (NLP) algorithms to numerically encode COVID-19 related tweets originated from eight cities in the United States and predict city-specific CCC up to eight days in the future. A city-embedding is proposed to obtain a time series representation of daily tweets posted from a city, which is then used to predict case counts using a custom long-short term memory (LSTM) model. The universal sentence encoder yields the best normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) 0.090 (0.039), averaged across all cities in predicting CCC six days in the future. The R
²
scores in predicting CCC are more than 0.70 and often over 0.8, which suggests a strong correlation between the actual and our model predicted CCC values. Our analyses show that the NRMSE and R
²
scores are consistently robust across different cities and different numbers of time steps in time series data. Results show that the LSTM model can learn the mapping between the NLP-encoded tweet semantics and the case counts, which infers that social media text can be directly mined to identify the future course of the pandemic.