Statistical analysis of the crowd dynamics in Al-Masjid Al-Nabawi in the city of Medina, Saudi Arabia

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to analyze the crowd dynamics of the visitors at Al-Masjid al-Nabawi during the most oversaturated period to characterize the most critical conditions and suggest technical solutions to accommodate visitors and provide them safe passage. Design/methodology/approach – In this study, the time of entrance from the Al-Salam Gate to the tomb and from the tomb to the exit from the Al-Baqi' Gate has been collected in the most oversaturated period. To be precise and to model the worst case, important crowd measures of effectiveness data are collected in the two holiest times considered by Muslims, during the holy month of Ramadan and the month of Dhul-Hijjah and during the busiest hours of the day to consider safety factors while proposing future solutions. The conventional manual head-counting method has been adopted to determine the crowd density and to carry out actual counting of the visitors from the recorded videos and photos captured by the legitimate authority. Findings – The analyses revealed that the crowd dynamics in the month of Ramadan (peak) are statistically different from those for other times (off peak). In general, the crowd dynamics at all times on days other than Ramadan are almost identical. Originality/value – The results of crowd characterization from this study are expected to help optimize crowd management in the Masjid at the most critical location and time. The data collected in this study could be used for future research to simulate similar crowd scenes or for even different crowd management scenarios in case of emergencies such as fire hazards or evacuation process.