Normal accident theory validated: interactive complexity and resource availability as predictors of reliability

This paper identifies resource availability as an important organizational factor associated with coupling, one of the two variables associated with system risk, according to Perrow's Normal Accident Theory. By investigating a sample (n=70) of petroleum refineries located in the United States during the five-year period, 1993-97, a statistically significant (p=.01) relationship between resource availability and reliability as indicated by the incidence of accidental hazardous substance releases (RQs) was identified. Tight coupling may not be just a requirement of a manufacturing process, but may result from managerial decisions based upon budgetary factors and stresses.