Roles of Scenario Planning for Public Policy: A Case Study of Korean Artificial Intelligence Policy

Scenario planning is useful to approach the uncertainty of the future but scenario planning in public policy has gained less attention while public policy requires more realistic future scenarios. This study aims to study what are the roles of scenario planning linking public policy with the future. This study adopted a methodology based on workshop discussion among experts using Korean AI policy case as a case study. The main roles of scenario planning for public policy were exhibited to consider the publicity to approach and resolve public issues, to define the multiple stakeholders and their interests during public policy decisions, to approach time mismatching issues, and to consider cross-border effect between private and public sectors by public policy. The cross-border effect between private and public sectors by technological innovation was uniquely discussed and the theory of scenario planning is extended including the public area in this study.