A Simulation Model for Marine Traffic Environment Risk Assessment in the Traffic Separation Scheme

To make full use of the information regarding marine traffic environment risk, and to reflect the risk situation in specific waters, a simulation method fusing Monte Carlo (MC) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE) methods is proposed. The space coupling of random parameters is performed to solve the problem of conflicting index values in common risk evaluation. The MC-FCE method is applied in the simulation of the marine traffic environment risk of the Tiaozhoumen Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS). The simulation result shows that the proposed method describes the randomness risk in the Tiaozhoumen channel more completely while avoiding conflicting index values. The simulation results are validated using the C5.0 decision tree algorithm and multi-contact number theory method.