Building Resilience Through Foresight: The Case of Maritime Container Shipping Firms

Maritime container shipping (MCS) firms represent the backbone of worldwide supply chains. Due to the emergence of global trends and disruptions, MCS firms increasingly face an uncertain environment. Consequently, MCS firms must develop dynamic capabilities to enable the reconfiguration of organizational resources for building resilience in a constantly changing business ecosystem. To create adequate dynamic capabilities, MCS firms need to anticipate the future of their macro environment through advanced foresight techniques. Using a Delphi-based scenario analysis, this study systematically examines scenarios for MCS firms’ macro environment. Twelve projections for the MCS industry were systematically created and were then assessed by 51 maritime experts. The resulting three distinct scenarios deliver valuable insights for MCS firms’ executives, whereas the blockchains and drones technology will have already increased efficiency in the short-term scenario “picking the low-hanging fruit,” other technological disruptions will only affect the industry in the medium-term scenario “experiencing an era of dichotomy.” In the long-term scenario “overcoming the obstacles of the generational shift,” MCS firms will experience a transfer toward alternative fuel powered and autonomously driven vessels. Offering detailed scenarios for the future MCS macro environment, this study represents a guide for decision-makers on how to create dynamic capabilities in MCS firms to build resilience. Moreover, the results revealed differences in the experts’ assessments due to their characteristics. Therefore, the study contributes to the academic focus on in-depth diversity analysis in the Delphi methodology and emphasizes the relevance of incorporating multiple stakeholders and panelists in future planning.