A Robust Approach for Determining Future Projections for the Distribution Grid based on National Projections

This paper proposes a robust approach based on geographic and statistical data to distribute national projections for distributed generation and for consumption into five distinct distribution grid types (‘City’, ‘Suburban’, ‘Rural’, ‘Holiday cottages’ and ‘Industry’). First, an approach based on geographic data is presented, which allows to categorize areas into these five grid types. Second, national projections for consumption from EVs are used to determine the needed number of EV chargers (home, fast and rapid chargers) and how these will be distributed on the five grid types. Similar approaches are presented for distributing roof-top and large-scale PVs as well as individual heat pumps. The proposed method will help network planers to assess the impact of these new consumers and producers on the distribution grid. The approach is illustrated using national projections for Denmark.