Scenario Analysis of the Electric Vehicle Promotion Roadmap of Royal Thai Government

This article presents the Thailand transport system's energy demand and emission analysis, excluding fright vehicles based upon the proposed Government Electric Vehicle (GEV) expansion road map, which insists that all newly registered vehicles after 2035 will be zero-emission vehicles. A LEAP-based simulating model is used to perform scenario analysis between Business as Usual (BAU) and GEV. The data from various reports, policies, and previous researches are utilized in this work. Gasoline, diesel, CNG, and LPG alongside electric and hybrid vehicles are considered. The transition from one fuel type to another is assumed to be linear. It is estimated that the total demand will reach 51000 ktoe in 2040. Electricity will supply about two- fifth of that demand. The emission from the vehicles is reduced significantly but still failed to reach the official commitment of curtailing 20% of BAU emission by 2030, which eventually was met in 2035.