Transformer Fault Probability Calculation Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

With the continuous construction of the power grid, the safe operation of the power system is the basis to ensure a stable and reliable power supply. Power transformer is the core of energy conversion and transmission in the power network, which is one of the most important and critical equipment in the power network. For a long time, the safe operation of high voltage equipment mainly depends on preventive test and regular maintenance, so it is difficult to comprehensively and accurately know the transformer state. Meanwhile, effective and reliable fault probability calculation can help us to know the transformer state in time, provide the prerequisite for the establishment of maintenance strategy, and prevent the occurrence of major accidents. The corresponding relationship between each fault mode and characteristic parameters of power transformer is established in this paper, according to the analysis results of power transformer FMEA. In terms of the different characteristics of characteristic parameters, the evaluation methods of fault occurrence probability based on fuzzy membership function and relative deterioration degree are proposed. In order to make full use of the information of characteristic parameters, a comprehensive evaluation method of fault occurrence probability based on the improved analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was established for the fault modes with multiple characteristic parameters. Finally, the concrete evaluation process of the evaluation method is explained in detail through a case analysis.