An efficient aircraft conflict probability estimation method using a spatial multi-resolution scheme

In this paper, we propose an improved variant of an aircraft conflict probability estimation method recently introduced in the literature. The key innovative aspect consists in the adoption of an inner and outer block cover of the conflict zone that is tuned to the local conflict probability estimation error, thus resulting in a spatial multi-resolution scheme. As in the original method, an estimate of the conflict probability with accuracy guarantees is provided.Simulation results show that the proposed method is more efficient than the original one, in that it provides a coverage of the conflict zone for conflict probability estimation that is adapted to the probability distribution of the aircraft relative distance. Computational time is then smaller because of the lower number of blocks needed for the inner and outer covers of the conflict zone.