Attentional-GCNN: Adaptive Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction towards Generic Autonomous Vehicle Use Cases

Autonomous vehicle navigation in shared pedestrian environments requires the ability to predict future crowd motion both accurately and with minimal delay. Understanding the uncertainty of the prediction is also crucial. Most existing approaches however can only estimate uncertainty through repeated sampling of generative models. Additionally, most current predictive models are trained on datasets that assume complete observability of the crowd using an aerial view. These are generally not representative of real-world usage from a vehicle perspective, and can lead to the underestimation of uncertainty bounds when the on-board sensors are occluded. Inspired by prior work in motion prediction using spatio-temporal graphs, we propose a novel Graph Convolutional Neural Network (GCNN)-based approach, Attentional-GCNN, which aggregates information of implicit interaction between pedestrians in a crowd by assigning attention weight in edges of the graph. Our model can either output a probabilistic distribution or faster deterministic prediction, demonstrating applicability to autonomous vehicle use cases where either speed or accuracy with uncertainty bounds are required. To further improve the training of predictive models, we propose an automatically labelled pedestrian dataset collected from an intelligent vehicle platform representative of real-world use. Through experiments on a number of datasets, we show our proposed method achieves an improvement over the state of the art by 10% on Average Displacement Error (ADE) and 12% on Final Displacement Error (FDE) with fast inference speeds.