Evaluation of the Impact of Heat-Wave on Distribution System Resilience

This paper addresses the impact of heat waves on a real urban distribution system. A data-driven methodology is proposed to simulate the portion of faults that can be associated to normal conditions (and hence to reliability) and the portion correlated to the heat wave occurrence. Based on real data collected in the years 2012-2017, the fault rates associated to reliability and resilience have been calculated and then used to feed a Monte Carlo simulation aiming to manage the uncertainty in the fault occurrence. Finally, based on the Italian legislation, the avoided costs deriving by the substitution of the faulted portion of the system have been calculated. The results show the different nature of reliability and resilience in terms of empirical cumulative curve, suggesting the necessity of using a stochastic-based methodology within regulatory frameworks, especially in case of output-based regulation.