A Robust Crop Rotation Optimization Model With Water Scarcity and Net Return Uncertainty Considerations

The tactical, technical, and economic considerations are critical factors in evaluating crop rotation decisions in any agricultural system. This system suffers from uncertainties that are amplified during the multi-period rotation planning. This study considers the crop rotation problem with water supply/demand and net return uncertainties, which vary within the allowable rotation cycle. Robust optimization is the most relevant tool for elaborating uncertainty in different parameters related to agricultural activities. It makes the formulated model numerically tractable, primarily when implemented in complex agricultural problems. The main objectives of this work include deciding the optimal cropping plans, achieving a reasonable income for the farmer, and taking water uncertainties into account on a tactical basis. All the mentioned goals are integrated while respecting the agronomic constraints and satisfying specific demand. A powerful feature of robust optimization is its robustness level adjustment for the solution against uncertainty sets. In this situation, the relationships between optimal values, the budget of uncertainty, and the perturbation values were outlined with insights towards tradeoff decisions. The proposed model compares the performance at each perturbation level with insights toward proper managerial decisions.