Mapping Cyber Threat Intelligence to Probabilistic Attack Graphs

As cyber threats continue to grow and expertise resources are limited, organisations need to find ways to evaluate their resilience efficiently and take proactive measures against an attack from a specific adversary before it occurs. Threat modelling is an excellent method of assessing the resilience of ICT systems, forming Attack (Defense) Graphs (ADGs) that illustrate an adversary’s attack vectors. Cyber Threat Intelligence (CTI) is information that helps understand the current cyber threats, but has little integration with ADGs. This paper contributes with an approach that resolves this problem by using CTI feeds of known threat actors to enrich ADGs under multiple reuse. This enables security analysts to take proactive measures and strengthen their ICT systems against current methods used by any threat actor that is believed to pose a threat to them.