Covid-19 New Cases Measurements and Benford's Law with Specific Focus on South Africa

Since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, countries around the world have been publishing various statistics including daily new infections. This paper looks at using Benford's Law to attempt to validate whether or not these lists of numbers appear to be manipulated in any way or not. Benford's Law (additionally known as Newcomb-Benford's Law) can be used to describe a distribution of initial numerals in lists which are measurements of real-life events or objects. This paper looks specifically at the published values for daily new infections and analyses them with respect to Benford's Law with specific interest in Africa and South Africa. It is important to note that this research is not about the spread of Covid-19. It is not about whether or not using PCR tests are the best measurement of public health. It looks at the lists of published numbers to see if the lists adhere to Benford's Law.