Identifying Critical Uncertainties Impacting System Adequacy in Integrated Gas and Electricity Networks

In addition to becoming increasingly interconnected and interdependent, energy networks are facing more uncertainties associated with the rapid penetration of intermittent renewable generators as well as the electrification of heat and transport. A suitable probabilistic framework is necessary to account for these uncertainties and the associated risks to energy supply security. This work identifies the most critical input uncertainties affecting the electricity system adequacy in integrated gas and electricity networks using various sensitivity analysis techniques (one-at-a-time, correlation-constrained Morris and Spearman correlation). A case-study is carried out using three test cases with growing renewable penetrations in an integrated 9-bus electricity and 8-node gas network, where the input uncertainties include wind power, photovoltaic power, electric loads and gas loads. Results show that the most critical uncertainties vary between electric loads and wind power depending on the renewable penetrations. Compared to the Spearman correlation method, the correlation-constrained Morris method provides identical results but with considerably reduced computational time.