Simulation and analysis of future electric mobility load effects in urban distribution grids

In this paper, effects of electric mobility on urban grid load are modelled, simulated and analysed for the example of the city of Munich. For the analysis of grid load, the settlement structure of the city including relevant components in distribution grids are modelled and, by means of regionalised forecasts for development of electric vehicles, various scenarios are defined. Through load flow calculations, grid conditions for the scenarios and corresponding components are calculated and subsequently analysed. Potential effects of planned future electric mobility on current and future grid load of various areas as well as extreme forms of electric mobility distribution are evaluated. Scenarios of further components, such as the dismantling of electric storage heaters in different survey areas, are considered. The results show clear differences depending on the survey area, with the impact of electric vehicles on the urban fringe being of a similar magnitude to the impact of the development of other components such as heat pumps. Overall, under the corresponding model assumptions, the simulations show a positive trend for the integration of a large number of electric vehicles into Munich’s distribution grids.