E-Payment and It’s Effects on Cash in Thailand

Thailand has experienced high growth in e-payment as the government and industries introduce digital payment services as alternatives to cash payment. This paper aims to study e-payment effects on cash by constructing models to forecast value and analyze the structural change of e-payment and cash time series data. The data are a time series of monthly currency in circulation or cash data from January 2005 to September 2019 and e-payment data from January 2010 to March 2019. Using decomposition of components, Holt-Winters' additive method (HW), and ARIMA model, results demonstrate that e-payment is growing because it has an upward trend component. In terms of cash data, it grows upward initially and then continually has a downward trend. The implication is that e-payment growth has affected cash growth while cash is still growing with a decreasing rate. The forecasting models and implications discovered are grounds for conducting further investigations and crafting related policies in the future.