The Prediction on the Change of the Electoral Map Based on the Demographic Structure and Data Analysis

American politics seemed to be polarized by drawing a clear line between education, gender, and race instead of the policies and advocations by the governor. Since the time of Nixon, the republicans have initialized the "southern strategy" to absorb the votes of the white majority in the southern states. This strategy was considered to be the most successful strategy in history of modern politics by Cornell Belcher [1]. Following the same pattern, Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush were successfully get elected and the Donald Trump is not an exception. Therefore, from Nixon to Trump, it can be seen that this strategy, which represented the interest of the white majority, has gradually been weakened. In contrast, the identity politics of Democrats party started to sway the power even in some southern states and gradually dominated the recent popular votes. Since two parties both have their strategies when it comes to the identity politics, the change of population structure will be significant in predicting the politics trend, which is the purpose of this essay. That is to use the simple formula, the linear regression, to predict the demographics in different states, reflecting the American politics in the future. It turns out that if the republican party insists on using the “southern strategy” and assume that these two parties will not alter their policy in the future, the states voting for the republican will continuously “shrink” into the inlands, where the white population are still increasing and hardly have minority immigrations. Most states either near the coastline or near the border of Mexico will start to turn blue (the symbol of democratic party) and Texas, the base of republicans, is not an exception, which signals that the republican should try to absorb at least one minority race as soon as possible.