Analysis of the Spread of COVID-19 in Local Areas in Indonesia

COVID-19 has spread in various countries, one of which is Indonesia. Several provinces in Indonesia have reported individuals who have tested positive for the virus. The spread that has not been completed makes prediction difficult, especially in the heuristic model. Therefore, this paper tries to approach the SIR and SIRD models to determine developments and estimate their distribution in Indonesia. We compared the two models to predict the peak spread of the virus in the local area. The SIRD model predicts that there will be a peak on day 178, while SIR is on day 177. This difference is influenced by the Alpha value, which is obtained from virus induction.