Does Pakistan have enough electricity generation to support massive penetration of electric vehicles?

Pakistan experienced a grave power shortfall between 2006 and 2017. The government responded to the situation through fast track development of power plants. However, the energy planners were unable to accurately forecast the electricity demand, resulting in a situation where more generation is available than needed. The power plants are backed by take-or-pay contracts. Thus, even if the power plants are not operating, a substantial capacity payment is still paid. To utilize this surplus available capacity year around electricity loads are needed. On the other hand, Northeastern Pakistan has one of the worst air quality in the world. Over 45% of the emissions are attributed to the transport sector. Therefore, electric vehicles (EVs) are an ideal load that utilizes the excess generation capacity and at the same time, improves air quality in the region. In this paper, we analyse the impact of various penetration levels of EVs on the utilization of excess generation capacity. This analysis will help us to determine EV penetration goals such that the capacity is optimally utilized. The impact of EVs is analysed using three optimistic scenarios of 30%, 50% and 70% new vehicle sales for two, three and four wheelers starting from 2020. This showed that by 2024, EVs will add 1250 MW at 70% new vehicle sales and only with peak demand, it is expected to reach available generation capacity.