An Electric Vehicle Charging Load Forecast Model Based on Probability Distribution

With the rapid development of electric vehicles (EVs) and their supporting technologies, the scale and number of electric vehicles have grown rapidly, and the charging mode has gradually moved toward fast charging, which has a certain impact on the load characteristics of local areas and the whole province. In order to accurately grasp the charging characteristics of electric vehicles and make advanced preparations for electric power grid planning. This paper analyzes the travel behavior of different types of EVs in Fujian Province, builds a charging load forecasting model for electric vehicles based on travel and charging probability within electric vehicle planning, evaluates the influence of charging load to regional load based on the existing electricity price policy, and finally proposes management recommendations to reduce the influence. This work was supported by the State Grid science and technology research project “Research and application of dispatch and control technology for an integrated energy system based on the interaction of source-grid-load-storage”(Grant SGFJJYOOGH JS1900066).