Potential of Renewable Energy in selected Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) Countries to achieve NDCs in 2030

The selected Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) countries namely, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand, and Vietnam submitted their respective Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2015 and subsequently ratified the Paris Agreement. The INDCs of the selected GMS countries set the total GHG emissions reduction target in the range of 117 to 339 Mt-CO₂eq by 2030 when compared to the business-as-usual case. The GHG emissions in the INDCs are expected to be reduced through many measures in the energy sector such as efficiency improvement and renewable energy and other measures in the non-energy sector. However, among the four countries only Thailand has certain NDC roadmap for the target in 2030 while others do not have. This matter raises uncertainty on the amount of GHG emissions that can be reduced in the four countries in the INDC timeline. This study estimates the potential of the renewable energy in mitigating the GHG emissions in the selected GMS countries to see how much emissions can be cut down in view of the INDCs by using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model. The paper developed two scenarios namely, Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and Renewable Energy Integration (REI) scenario which follows the energy policies related to renewable energy of each country. The results of the modeling indicate that by 2030 the GHG emissions in the selected GMS countries would be reduced by around 249.2 Mt-CO₂eq in the renewable energy scenario. Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand, and Vietnam would reduce their GHG emissions by 8.1 Mt-CO₂eq, 4.8 Mt-CO₂eq, 152.6 Mt-CO₂eq, and 83.7 Mt-CO₂eq respectively by 2030. The results point out that renewable energy has strong potential to achieve NDC targets.