Probabilistic Analysis of PV Curtailment Impact on Distribution Circuit Hosting Capacity

As a larger number of distributed energy resources (DER) are integrated into the distribution system, utilities need to utilize more efficient methods to perform integration studies. There are many factors to be considered in performing such analyses. Technically, the available capacity of a distribution system for solar PV integration depends on the interconnection location, load profile, circuit equipment rating and configuration, weather data, etc. Currently, the Hosting Capacity analysis is typically performed for the worst-case scenario or through a time-series analysis for the peak and minimum loads. This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to determine the impact of PV curtailment on improving the hosting capacity of a distribution circuit at different integration locations. In addition, the proposed method considers different PV penetration levels, PV generation correlations, etc. This study is performed using Monte Carlo simulation with a power flow analysis at each iteration. The results of the analysis can provide the system planners with the maximum DER capacity that can be integrated reliably without exceeding the operational limits, as well as, the expected amount of PV curtailment required to mitigate the risk of constraint violation at different segments of a distribution circuit.