Weather Informed Need Attributes for Non-Wires Alternatives in Distribution Networks

To address deficiencies on the distribution system, more utilities are evaluating “non-wires alternatives” (NWA) to traditional distribution upgrades. Whereas traditional upgrades only require knowledge of the deficiency magnitude, NWA require determination of additional attributes including the duration, energy, and frequency of the deficiency. This paper proposes a novel methodology to facilitate risk informed procurement of NWA using weather informed need attributes. The proposed methodology uses historical load and corresponding weather data to create a weather sensitive hourly demand model. This model uses 50 alternate weather scenarios to produce a probabilistic range of need attributes. Regression and artificial neural network based techniques for modelling were both evaluated. A case study using actual energy consumption data demonstrates the ability of the proposed strategy to inform the contract terms used to procure NWA and limit risk of insufficient capacity.