COVID-19 Cases in Iraq; Forecasting Incidents Using Box - Jenkins ARIMA Model

The pandemic outbreak of COVID-19 created panic all over the world. The mathematical principle in developing forecasting models aims to predict the number of future infections is considered crucial at this stage. The present investigation aims to analyze the time series using the Box-Jenkins method (Diagnostic, The Estimate, and selection, Forecasting) to find the best ARIMA model (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) for predicting the numbers of people infected with Covid-19 disease in Iraq. The data used were collected in the period between 1 -March and 31- July. The results showed that the appropriate forecasting model is ARIMA (2,1,5). Depending on this model, they predict the numbers of those infected with COVID-19 daily and for thirty days. Predictive values are consistent with original series values, indicating the efficiency of the model.