Comparative Study on Performance of Time Series Fitting and Prediction of SF6 Decomposition Gas Under Over-heated Condition by GM(1,1) and OBGM(1,N) Grey System

The temperature field distribution of high voltage electrode system of SF₆ gas under condition of overheating is simulated, and the surface thermal field distribution of complex high-voltage conductor electrode system under the condition of operation is obtained, and the actual observation is carried out. On this basis, the volume fraction time series of the SF₆ typical decomposition gases, such as SOF₂, SO₂, H₂S and CF₄, with over-heat failure time are obtained. At the same time, the grey system GM (1,1) and OBGM (1,N) are used to fit and predict the above time series. The two grey systems are used to fit and predict the time series of SF₆ characteristic decomposition gas. Research results of this paper have good theoretical guidance value for judging the development trend of overheating fault by decomposing gas time series.