Mathematical Modeling of Population Mobility by Income

The problem of inequality in the distribution of the population incomes is characterized by complexity and ambiguity. On the one hand, that is a natural and economically justified phenomenon. On the other hand, a strong stratification of society by income can cause socio-economic problems. Therefore, to research inequality it is necessary not only to give an appropriate assessment of the level of the population incomes differentiation, but also to identify the features of this process. The research carried out mathematical modeling of population mobility by income including: creation of a kernel density estimation of the income distribution of an individual; population stratification by income using the EM-algorithm; class characteristics by gender, age and socio-demographic characteristics of individuals; identification of factors that have a significant impact on the population stratification by income; construction of binary choice models for the probability of a decrease and an increase in an indi-vidual's income. As a result of the implementation of the proposed algorithm according to the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring survey, the population was stratified by income and a mathematical model of population mobility was built. The factors influencing the decline in income include: respondent's gender, job loss, employment, obtaining an additional source of income and retirement. Factors, that affect income growth include: marriage status, higher education, job loss, employment and extra source of income. The proposed algorithm can serve as an effective tool for understanding the features of the process of differentiating incomes of the population, especially during periods of crisis and socio-economic reforms.