Dynamic Event Tree Framework to Assess Collision Risk Between Various Aircraft Types

The air transportation system provides an extremely safe mode of transportation. Maintaining adequate separation ensures safety but limits capacity of the airspace. In addition to the expected growth in commercial flights, the number and diversity of other aircraft (e.g., unmanned aerial vehicles, UAVs) will also increase significantly. Various types of UAVs have a wide range of specifications and performance characteristics (e.g., cruise speed and maximum operating altitude) that can differ significantly from manned aircraft. They may also have different collision avoidance technologies that rely on various sensors (e.g., optical, thermal, or laser) to detect and avoid nearby aircraft. While accommodating the variety of aircraft types in an airspace, collision risk should remain less than a specified target level of safety. This paper develops a case study for collision risk of an airspace with different aircraft types and collision avoidance capabilities using a proposed dynamic event tree framework. Sensitivity analysis is conducted on the parameters used in the case study.