Likelihood of Unmitigated Collision Risks for Uas in Defined Airspace Volumes

The capability to properly assess the risks associated with the integration of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System (NAS) is critical to ensuring UAS operations are introduced in a safe and responsible manner. Key to this capability is the accurate determination of the likelihood of collision between UAS and other aircraft. Likelihood of such collisions are not well understood and, in many cases, are assessed in a subjective and qualitative manner, resulting in potentially inaccurate assumptions and evaluation of risk and/or allocation of limiting mitigations that decrease the efficiency and effectiveness of UAS operations. Quantification of the likelihood of these collision risk elements will transform the way UAS integration is evaluated and approvedThis paper focuses on a methodology to quantify and analyze the likelihood of unmitigated aircraft collisions within defined airspace volumes. This methodology, developed by The MITRE Corporation (MITRE), will enable a more objective, standardized, and comprehensive assessment of the collision risk posed by the integration of UAS into the NAS with the ability to statistically assess the differences between distributions of risk across multiple airspace volumes. Leveraging this methodology will speed the determination of airspace risk associated with integration and will specifically assist in the identification of mitigations to reduce identified risk to an acceptable level.