An Intelligent Prediction Model of COVID-19 in India using Hybrid Epidemic Model

This article presents the current situation of COVID 19 spread in India and how it is impacted by various measures taken by the administration. Data source is taken (till 15th June 2020) from World Health organization (WHO) to study various trends and pattern. Hybrid epidemic susceptible-infected recovered model is used to make predictions at every stage of coronavirus. The basic reproduction number R
₀
, is constructed using a logistic function. An improved or hybrid epidemic model is build based on various other factors to build a logistic infection rate to analyse the patterns and trend in the data. Secondly, ICU beds and ventilators available per 100,000 inhabitants is also taken in account for critical. Also, the timeline for changing the stage of coronavirus is used from various reliable resources. Moreover, in comparison with the traditional SIR models, accuracy in the predictions has significantly increased with the R
²
value of 96.8 percent for the future days in India.