Stochastic Moore Machine Integrated with Fuzzy Logic System for Decision Support System Modeling in Business Strategic Planning

In this paper, we are motivated to assist business executives and managers especially strategic planning manager in making decisions, which in turn helping the organization to achieve its objective which is to maximise the profit of business. A framework of decision support system (DSS), which suggests optimal strategic actions to be performed, is proposed. The idea is to integrate Finite State Transducer (FST) and fuzzy logic engine in DSS, with ability to capture vague natural language provided by decision makers. The DSS design decisions and business rules are constructed by decision makers based on business prioritised goals. In the proposed framework, the Stochastic Moore Machine (SMM) model, a modified version of FST based on Edward F. Moore is designed with the focus on the non-deterministic behaviour of the state transitions. The machine is integrated with fuzzy logic engine, in the mapping of crisp input of indicators from the management system to membership value for fuzzy operation. The fuzzy value computed will be the input for the probabilistic transition using roulette wheel selection. A case study, detailing how the DSS and SMM work in a small cafe, with the business owner as the strategic planning manager, and two hired employee as operational managers is discussed to illustrate the behaviour of the model based on a triggering event. The case study illustrates how the decisions from business owner and operational managers collectively contribute towards the business goal, by suggesting actions to introduce new menu or reduce fixed expenses.