Investment Deferral of Feeder Upgrades Revealed by System-Wide Unbalanced Dynamic Rating: Harvesting the Hidden Capacity of Distribution Systems Discovered by Thermal Map Technology

Dynamic thermal rating for underground cables with balanced phase currents has been extensively studied in the literature. Paradoxically, distribution feeders operate inherently unbalanced and no publications are available for unbalanced thermal rating. Because of the lack of technology, utilities operate with very conservative margins using the maximum of the three-phase currents to determine the line loading. This practice leads to the significant underutilization of underground cables. To fill the gap this paper presents a physically sound and accurate transient electro-thermal model of unbalanced three-phase distribution cables considering variations in the load and environment. Moreover, the model proposed in this paper allows harvesting the large hidden capacity of distribution systems trapped in the thermal inertia of underground cables. A convenient visual tool is developed to uncover hot spots and underutilized energy routes. This facilitates real-time network reconfiguration based on predicted load graphs and dynamic thermal conditions. The proposed model is also useful to study load growth, perhaps eliminating or deferring capital investments needed to upgrade the capacity of the existing underground feeders. The IEEE 37-bus distribution network is used as a case study. The results show that the proposed methodology has a high potential to defer investments, for instance, one could save $5M for a small system like the IEEE 37-bus distribution network which would have been necessary under current conservative practice.