The forecast of electricity consumption using SARMA model: Bosnia and Herzegovina case study

This paper analyses the load forecast for a balance group using seasonal autoregressive moving average method. We investigate the importance of a precise load forecast under market conditions incorporating interests of different market participants. The seasonal autoregressive moving average method has been applied on total consumption of JP Elektroprivreda of Bosnia and Herzegovina d.d. — Sarajevo, with the purpose of the load forecast in three days ahead. Analysis results are presented for the data representing aggregated consumption of the balance group obtained from Independent System Operator in B&H, for the period from May 2016 to January 2018.