A New Vehicle Arrival Prediction Model for Adaptive Signal Control in a Connected Vehicle Environment

With the development of connected vehicles (CVs) technology, it has become a new research topic to capture the dynamic traffic system by using CVs data. The traditional vehicle arrival prediction models are limited to the fixed detectors, which can only recognize the passing information of vehicles, but cannot identify the state of vehicles. This paper proposed a new vehicle arrival prediction model of traffic signal control in a connected vehicle environment. First, the vehicle's identification number (ID), position, velocity, and acceleration were obtained in a CV environment. Second, a new vehicle arrival prediction model was developed by the joint probability distribution calibrated based on CV data. Then, the simulation experiment was designed for analyzing influence factors on model performance. The results show that the average relative error of each factor is less than 10%. Finally, the reliability of the proposed model was verified based on an adaptive signal control algorithm. Therefore, the proposed model can be used in the adaptive signal control system.