Analysis of Regional Electricity Supply Planning based on Reliability, Costs and Emissions (Case Study of East Kalimantan Region)

Provision of sustainable electricity is very important in the electricity industry today. Sustainability means how the system can provide electricity with high reliability, minimum cost, and at the same time also low emissions. Electricity planning in the power generation side is an essential phase that an appropriate scenario formula is developed to Figure out the best electricity supply in the future. This study presents an analysis and recommendation of strategies in order to plan sustainable electricity supply of East Kalimantan electricity system up to year 2038. The methodology used is modeling to describe how supply and demand of electricity works in the area followed by simulations to get the picture of impacts the series of scenarios in the future. LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning) as one of the tool that is able to assess sustainability is chosen as instrument to develop model and simulate it. The scenario developed is a representation of a strategy that combines the selection of types of plants, economic dispatch methods and types of low emission generating technologies, especially the Ultra Super Critical (USC) Coal Fired Power Plant and renewable energy. The results show that Electricity Supply Business Plan (Rencana Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik - RUPTL) as a base case scenario does not able to meet the system reserve margin of at least 30% from 2019 - 2038. The Least Cost scenario in 2038 projected electricity generation of 16.7 TWh with the least cost of 1.031 billion USD and GHG emissions lower than base scenario of 8.65 million tons CO_2-eq. The Low Emission scenario have slightly higher production costs for the same total output of 1,040 billion USD but with a lower emission level difference of 3 million tons equal to 5.64 million tons of CO₂.