Probabilistic Forecasting Model of Changes Based on Impacts in Infocommunication Projects

The issues related to the development of cloud technologies are considered, in particular, the development and implementation of distributed information systems, which today are the most important decision in the market of information technologies. The reasons for the negative conclusion of most such projects are analyzed, the conclusion is made on the necessity of applying to these processes the technologies of project management that are sufficiently developed and effective at this time. The analysis is carried out to study the parameters and characteristics of projects for the creation of complex infocommunication products and the main causes of project failures based on the generated classes of influences are identified. A list of top-level dynamic changes has been generated that made it possible to determine the main impacts on all components and participants of project activities. A multi-level conceptual model of influences and their actions on the parameters of such projects is built. A mathematical model of project state forecasting is formulated based on this using a proactive approach. Using the method of expert estimation, the authors conducted a study of the proposed model and showed the results of these studies. Practical implementation of such models in information and communication projects has shown its effectiveness.