Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems Considering Integration of Renewable Energy and Aggregated TCLs

The integration of renewable energy increases the uncertainty for power system operation. Demand response is considered as a valid option to alleviate this problem. As one of the main resources in demand side, thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) are widely considered to have significant potential to provide operating reserve. This paper evaluates the power system reliability considering integration of renewable energy and demand response of aggregated TCLs. Firstly, probability distribution estimation is utilized to analyze the power uncertainty of aggregated TCLs and renewable energy. The reserve capacity of aggregated TCLs is estimated by kernel function estimation (KDE). The correlation between wind speed and solar irradiation is modeled by the copula function. Later, the operating states of the power system are sampled by the Monte Carlo simulation and the corresponding reliability indices are calculated. Finally, the proposed method is verified by numerical studies on a modified IEEE RTS 24-bus system.