Predicting enemy force closure with simulation

This paper presents a model and an analysis done to predict enemy force closure. The simulation replaces a pencil and ruler method that has been used by Department of Defense planners for over a century. More importantly, the model provides planners with the capability to assess previously "impossible to quantify", yet critical, factors: transportation network constraints, equipment reliability and maintainability, varying task times, nighttime operations, and the effects of air interdiction. War planning implications are discussed and notional results are presented.