Error Analysis of Ultra Short Term Wind Power Prediction Model and Effect on the Power System Frequency

The forecasting error analysis of wind power is the preparation of power system optimization scheduling for large scale wind power access, which can improve the security and economy of the system operation. In this paper, a piecewise exponential distribution model is employed to predict the ultra short term wind power error and estimation of the parameters. The proposed piecewise exponential distribution model and study of the effect on the frequency of power system have been investigated. The prediction error distribution model of the sub index wind power forecasting error can be used to mine the relative information of the actual error distribution. In addition, it's convenient to implement and easy to be used in calculus, it can be applied to describe the error distribution of the multiple time scale prediction, so it has more advantages in the error analysis.