Forecasting Domestic Tourist Arrivals to Bali: H-WEMA Approach

Bali, also known as the Island of the Gods, is one of the most famous tourist destinations in the world. It attracts not only foreign visitors but also domestic visitors from Indonesia. Accurate prediction of tourist volume to a region has become a key issue in tourism economic analysis and development planning. Therefore, in this study, we are trying to forecast the domestic tourist arrivals to Bali province by using Holt's Weighted Exponential Moving Average (H-WEMA) approach. H-WEMA is a relatively new hybrid moving average method that combines the Weighted Moving Average weighting factor calculation with the procedure of Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing method. Based on the experimental results of this study, H-WEMA has successfully applied to forecast the domestic tourist arrivals to Bali province. We found that in 2019, there is an increasing pattern spotted for each consecutive month, with a total number of domestic tourist visitors can reach out up to 12 million people.