Can Subsidies for New Energy Vehicles Drive Sales Growth? Based on the Empirical Study of PVAR model

The relationship between the sales volume of differently efficiency vehicle and purchase subsidy was analyzed using the PVAR model based on panel data of 35 vehicles' types of 6 enterprises in 33 months from 2016 to 2018. The study showed that purchase subsidies have a positive impact on the sales of high-efficiency vehicles continuously and the effect on low-efficiency vehicles changes from positive to negative over time. The result of variance decomposition also shows that subsidies contribute highly rate to the sales of high-efficiency vehicles. National subsidy policy should be adjusted to focus on high-efficiency vehicles and encourage the product with high technical level, such as long driving range and great battery system quality vehicles. And vehicles with inefficient power and poor quality should be phase out. Through these measures, the goals that purchase subsidies can promote enterprise's core technical ability and the effect of the “quantity” to “quality” can be achieved.