Analysis of the Heat Tariff Impact on Gross Regional Product in the Samara Region

The article analyzes the influence of various factors of production on the gross regional product of the Samara region. The authors emphasize the importance of such factors for the social and economic development of the region. The branch structure of the regional economy is analyzed. The authors show the role of the Samara region in the Russian production of a number of significant nomenclature positions: passenger cars, anhydrous ammonia, etc. The article reviews the analysis of various data on world heat energy markets. It is concluded that one of the most important tools for the modernization of the Russian heat power industry will be the introduction of the “alternative boiler” mechanism. Special attention is paid by the authors to the influence of the tariff for thermal energy on the total shipment of products. To prove the hypothesis of the existence of such an effect, mathematical modeling techniques were used, where as a model a two-factor production function of the Cobb-Douglas type with extremely aggregated characteristics was chosen. In the model, the authors consider the total shipment of products in the region. Input impacts are the tariff for thermal energy and the labor remuneration fund. Analysis of the data showed that the approximate properties of the model, determined by the coefficient of determination, are quite satisfactory. The significance of this indicator is confirmed by the magnitude of the Fisher criterion. As a result, an adequate model has been obtained, which makes it possible to analyze general trends in the shipment of products in the Samara region. The model analysis showed a positive effect of the tariff increase on thermal energy on the number of products shipped in the region. However, to improve the quality of the model, it is necessary to identify and take into account other significant factors affecting the process.