Multi-period integrated natural gas and electric power system probabilistic optimal power flow incorporating power-to-gas units

The increasing adoption of gas-fired power plants directly strengthens the coupling between electric power and natural gas systems. Current industrial practice in optimal power flow for electric power systems has not taken the security constraints of gas systems into consideration, resulting in an overly-optimistic solution. Meanwhile, the operation of electric power and natural gas systems is coupled over multiple periods because of the ramp rate limits of power generators and the slow dynamical characteristics of gas systems. Based on these motivations, we propose a multi-period integrated natural gas and electric power system probabilistic optimal power flow (M-GEPOPF) model, which includes dynamic gas flow models. To address the uncertainties originating from wind power and load forecasting, a probabilistic optimal power flow (POPF) calculation based on a three-point estimate method (3PEM) is adopted. Moreover, power-to-gas (PtG) units are employed to avoid wind power curtailment and enable flexible bi-directional energy flows between the coupled energy systems. An integrated IEEE RTS 24-bus electric power system and the Belgian 20-node natural gas system are employed as a test case to verify the applicability of the proposed M-GEPOPF model, and to demonstrate the potential economic benefits of PtG units.