Probabilistic Evaluation of System Adequacy with Variations in Load Demand, Renewable Energy and Generator Topology

Evaluation of reliability has become more consequential in the planning and operation of power systems with high penetration of renewable energy. In this paper, probabilistic adequacy of power system considering variations in generation, load demand and topologies of wind and solar generation modules is evaluated. The reliability indices Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE), Loss of Energy Expectation (LOEE) and Expected Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) are evaluated for six different topologies viz; central, string and micro-inverter for PV; and Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG), Squirrel Cage Induction Generator (SCIG) and Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator (PMSG) for wind. The probabilistic uncertainties in generation/load are combined with unavailability due to component failure by using discrete convolution to find the best wind and solar topologies in power system based on reliability evaluation.