The Validation of Linear Method in Cascade Reservoir System for Prediction of Energy Production

This paper discusses the validation of a stochastic model of Thomas and Fearing that applied to energy prediction of three large scale reservoir in west java. They are Saguling Cirata, and Jatiluhur. The Saguling produces 700MW, Cirata produces 500 MW, and Jatiluhur produces 150MW of electricity energy. The method is applied the stochastic model to prediction supply, demand, and energy production for 2000–2005. The primer used the historical data inflow from 1988–2000. The result of the calculation is then compared to the real measurement on 2000–2005. Conclusion of this paper is the average increase number of monthly demand for next year as much as 4.47%. By increasing the number of demand, the need is still fulfilled. The average energy of those reservoirs between 2001 and 2005 is 4,952 GWH, while real energy is 4,638 GWH. The initial period of operation that fulfills optimal requirement is in April because it can fulfill the objective function and its obstacles. There is the increasing number of demand for irrigation need, industry and drinking water and it should become a priority, the movement of reforestation or the maintenance of Drainage Basin of Citarum River in upstream or downstream has to be carried out continuously, so the inflow of each reservoir can be fulfilled.